Scientific Quarterly Journal of Iranian Association of Engineering Geology

Scientific Quarterly Journal of Iranian Association of Engineering Geology

An investigation on the seismicity of Iran seismotectonic provinces using Monte Carlo simulation

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Abdolhadi Ghazvinian 1
Hamidreza Nejati 1
Vahab Sarafrazi 2
Mohammad Hayati 3
1 Rock Mechanics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran-Iran
2 استادیار مهندسی مکانیک سنگ، دانشگاه صنعتی همدان
3 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی معدن، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود
Abstract
Empirical relationships between earthquake magnitude and frequency of occurrence, e.g. Gutenberg - Richter’s relationship, have been presented for a special region using limited historical data. These relationships usually involve many sources of uncertainty (frequency of occurrence, magnitude, etc.). Therefore, it is necessary to use probabilistic simulation for determination of earthquake occurrence frequency instead of the deterministic one. In the present, Monte Carlo simulation, as the most preferred approach for probabilistic simulation, is used to evaluate seismic potential of Iran provinces. On the basis of probabilistic analyses, the frequency of earthquake occurrence by assuming a normal distribution of magnitudes and different occurrence probability are determined for 20 seismotectonic provinces of Iran. Furthermore, it can be concluded that the province situated in southwest of Iran (i.e. region number 12) is the most seismically active region and province number 16 (situated in the northwest of Iran) is the least seismically active region of Iran.
Keywords
Earthquake risk evaluation
Monte Carlo simulation
Probabilistic analysis
Iran seismicity
Subjects
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Scientific Quarterly Journal of Iranian Association of Engineering Geology
Volume 5, Number 1 & 2
September 2012
Pages 59-68

  • Receive Date 05 March 2011
  • Revise Date 19 March 2012
  • Accept Date 22 August 2012