مدل سازی عددی جریان آب زیرزمینی دشت علی آباد قم به منظور پیش بینی نوسانات سطح آب زیرزمینی و هدایت هیدرولیکی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه قم، گروه عمران

2 زمین شناسی مهندسی دانشگاه تهران

3 گروه عمران دانشگاه قم

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر مدل‌سازی عددی آب‌های زیرزمینی دشت علی‌آباد قم با بکارگیری نرم‌افزار GMS بین سال‌های 1385 تا 1395 انجام شده است. بدین منظور با استفاده از اطلاعات جامع زمین‌شناختی و هیدرولوژیکی، تراز هیدرولیکی در منطقه مورد مطالعه مدل‌سازی و هدایت هیدرولیکی نیز در گام نهایی مدل‌سازی تخمین‌ زده شده است. جهت اعتبارسنجی مدل، تغییرات سطح آب زیرزمینی پیش‌بینی شده توسط مدل با نتایج حاصل از اندازه‌گیری‌های پیزومتریک مقایسه و خطای RMSE، 4/1 متر تعیین گردید. بعلاوه نتایج نشان داد در 13 چاه از 26 چاه مشاهداتی میانگین اختلاف تراز هیدرولیکی مشاهداتی و پیش‌بینی شده کمتر از 5/0 متر و حداکثر میانگین اختلاف بین مقادیر فوق 94/2 متر می‌باشد. این مقادیر با توجه بازه تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی (810 تا 930 متر) در منطقه، نشان از خطای اندک 5/2درصدی مدل‌سازی دارد. مقایسه هیدروگراف‌ تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی مشاهداتی و پیش‌بینی شده، تطابق قابل قبول آن‌ها (با ضریب همبستگی 995/0 و ضریب رگرسیون 989/0) را نشان می‌دهد. همچنین نتایج تخمین هدایت هیدرولیکی حکایت از مقادیر بالای این پارامتر در تقاطع دو رودخانه اصلی منطقه دارد که به رسوب‌گذاری در این مناطق نسبت داده می‌شود. نتایج قابلیت مدل پیشنهادی را برای شبیه‌سازی توزیع تراز هیدرولیکی، تخمین پارامترهای هیدرولیکی و پیش‌بینی رفتار آینده آبخوان در منطقه مورد مطالعه نشان می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Numerical modeling of groundwater flow in Ali Abad Plain of Qom to predict fluctuations of the water table and hydraulic conductivity

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Edalat 1
  • Ali M. Rajabi 2
  • Mahdi khodaparast 3
1 University of Qom
2 Engineering Geology, university of Tehran
3 University of QOm
چکیده [English]

In the present study, numerical modeling was performed on groundwater of Ali Abad Plain using the GMS (MODFLOW 2005) in 120 time steps within the time frame of 2006 to 2016. For this purpose, the hydraulic level of the area was simulated using the comprehensive geological and hydrological data of the study area. Next, hydraulic conductivity was simulated as the last step of the modeling. To validate the prepared model, water table fluctuations predicted by the model were compared with the piezometric measurements. Also, it was observed that in 13 out of 26 observation wells, the difference between the observed and predicted mean hydraulic level is less than 0.5 m, with the maximum difference being 2.94 m. Considering the range of water table fluctuations in the study area, this difference indicates a 2.5% modeling error, which is negligible. Comparing the hydrograph of the observed and predicted groundwater level indicate an acceptable consistency of the results and thus the efficiency of the model in simulating the long-term average variations of groundwater level in the study area. Furthermore, hydraulic conductive estimates of the model in the final step of the simulation indicate the high values of this parameter in the confluence of two main rivers in the study area, which is attributed to sedimentation in the study area. Overall, the results show the capability of the proposed model for simulating the hydraulic levels distribution and hydraulic parameters, as well as predicting the behavior of the aquifer in the study area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Subsidence
  • Aliabad plain
  • Groundwater modeling
  • Hydraulic conductivity
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